WASHINGTON: Pakistan's elections were notable for their disappointing results for most countries. foreign partner Foreign policy analysts said there was little reason to be optimistic about the eventual government.
Pakistan's two major powers political party The dispute over who will become prime minister continues after an inconclusive vote last week forced the two parties to form a coalition in parliament, which is dominated by independents.
Both the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, formed the government on their own. It did not win enough seats to do so.
independent candidate Backed by former prime minister imran khan It is declared that it will represent the largest group and win 93 out of 264 seats. This came as a shock to many who expected their performances to be severely curtailed by the violent crackdown on Mr. Khan and his party.
But Mr. Khan cannot become prime minister because he is in prison, his group is nominally running as an independent, and his party is barred from running, so it cannot form a government. .
Some foreign policy analysts said the election results likely signaled voter protest against the powerful military's involvement in politics. However, the military denies interfering in the country's politics.
This further exacerbates political instability Given the strong historical role of the military in the security and diplomacy of nuclear-armed states.
“Pakistan has been on a slippery slope for some time, a gradual slope, and that slope is now much steeper,” said Frederick Greer, a South Asia expert at the Australian National University's National Security College. “It's happening,” he said.
“The military is likely to be able to control the situation for some time, but the political situation is likely to become increasingly unstable.”
This is a troubling scenario that no one had hoped for – neither China, Pakistan's main foreign backer, nor India, Pakistan's nuclear-armed neighbor and arch-enemy, after withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2021. Nor is the United States, which has reduced its involvement in Pakistan but remains concerned. Analysts said Islamic extremism was causing widespread instability in the region and beyond.
The prospect of a weak and divided government also raises questions about whether Pakistan will be able to undertake the reforms needed to secure a key new International Monetary Fund program later this year.
Last week, the United States, Britain and the European Union each expressed concern about Pakistan's election process and called for an investigation into reported irregularities. Pakistan's caretaker prime minister rejected these claims.
Perhaps only some countries in the Middle East are relieved by this result.
“Imran Khan did not have good relations with many of Pakistan's traditional Gulf states,” said Joshua White, a former White House adviser now at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
“I think Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are relatively relieved that he is locked up and that his party probably won't form a government in Pakistan.”
“More confusion and uncertainty”
Far from resolving the political crisis that has plagued Pakistan since Mr Khan's ouster in 2022, Tamannaah Salikuddin, South Asia director at the Washington think tank US Institute of Peace, said the election would only lead to “further turmoil and uncertainty.” It created certainty.”
“This election not only revealed the lack of trust that Pakistanis have in their leaders, but also the fact that no organization or leader has a plan to rebuild the economy, making it extremely difficult and difficult. It's also proof that they don't have the political capital to solve serious problems,” she said. “Painful reforms are needed to rebuild this broken economy.”
“Much of Pakistan's debt is owed to China, and China will also be concerned about Pakistan's lack of economic reform.”
China's multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a key part of Chinese President Xi Jinping's signature Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.
CPEC has slowed down in recent years and will require a strong mandate from a future Pakistani government to break through the bureaucracy and get back on track.
Elizabeth Threlkeld, a former U.S. diplomat in Pakistan who now works at the Stimson Center think tank, said negotiating a new IMF agreement is a top priority for the new government.
“Prolonged political uncertainty will complicate that process now that Pakistan cannot afford to delay,” she said.
Former Indian diplomats said the mixed poll results pose a challenge to India's relations with its nuclear-armed rival and that Delhi is likely to take a “wait-and-see” attitude.
Sharat Sabharwal, who served as India's high commissioner to Pakistan from 2009 to 2013, also said it would be difficult for Pakistan's new government to move forward with relations with India.
“We need a political agreement to move forward on this issue, and that agreement will not exist…If we take any action against India, our adversaries will immediately accuse us of selling out. ”
Mr. Khan, who is popular, has also publicly accused the United States of being part of a plot to overthrow the government. Washington denies his involvement in any such plot, and Mr. Khan was convicted of leaking diplomatic communications between Islamabad and Washington, which Mr. Khan denies.
“After two years of turmoil, the international community simply wants Pakistan to have a functioning government with some legitimacy,” said Hussain Haqqani, former ambassador to Washington and senior fellow at the Hudson Center.
“They want to be able to deal with Pakistan without fear that normal diplomatic exchanges turn into conspiracy theories.”
Pakistan's two major powers political party The dispute over who will become prime minister continues after an inconclusive vote last week forced the two parties to form a coalition in parliament, which is dominated by independents.
Both the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, formed the government on their own. It did not win enough seats to do so.
independent candidate Backed by former prime minister imran khan It is declared that it will represent the largest group and win 93 out of 264 seats. This came as a shock to many who expected their performances to be severely curtailed by the violent crackdown on Mr. Khan and his party.
But Mr. Khan cannot become prime minister because he is in prison, his group is nominally running as an independent, and his party is barred from running, so it cannot form a government. .
Some foreign policy analysts said the election results likely signaled voter protest against the powerful military's involvement in politics. However, the military denies interfering in the country's politics.
This further exacerbates political instability Given the strong historical role of the military in the security and diplomacy of nuclear-armed states.
“Pakistan has been on a slippery slope for some time, a gradual slope, and that slope is now much steeper,” said Frederick Greer, a South Asia expert at the Australian National University's National Security College. “It's happening,” he said.
“The military is likely to be able to control the situation for some time, but the political situation is likely to become increasingly unstable.”
This is a troubling scenario that no one had hoped for – neither China, Pakistan's main foreign backer, nor India, Pakistan's nuclear-armed neighbor and arch-enemy, after withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2021. Nor is the United States, which has reduced its involvement in Pakistan but remains concerned. Analysts said Islamic extremism was causing widespread instability in the region and beyond.
The prospect of a weak and divided government also raises questions about whether Pakistan will be able to undertake the reforms needed to secure a key new International Monetary Fund program later this year.
Last week, the United States, Britain and the European Union each expressed concern about Pakistan's election process and called for an investigation into reported irregularities. Pakistan's caretaker prime minister rejected these claims.
Perhaps only some countries in the Middle East are relieved by this result.
“Imran Khan did not have good relations with many of Pakistan's traditional Gulf states,” said Joshua White, a former White House adviser now at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
“I think Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are relatively relieved that he is locked up and that his party probably won't form a government in Pakistan.”
“More confusion and uncertainty”
Far from resolving the political crisis that has plagued Pakistan since Mr Khan's ouster in 2022, Tamannaah Salikuddin, South Asia director at the Washington think tank US Institute of Peace, said the election would only lead to “further turmoil and uncertainty.” It created certainty.”
“This election not only revealed the lack of trust that Pakistanis have in their leaders, but also the fact that no organization or leader has a plan to rebuild the economy, making it extremely difficult and difficult. It's also proof that they don't have the political capital to solve serious problems,” she said. “Painful reforms are needed to rebuild this broken economy.”
“Much of Pakistan's debt is owed to China, and China will also be concerned about Pakistan's lack of economic reform.”
China's multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a key part of Chinese President Xi Jinping's signature Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.
CPEC has slowed down in recent years and will require a strong mandate from a future Pakistani government to break through the bureaucracy and get back on track.
Elizabeth Threlkeld, a former U.S. diplomat in Pakistan who now works at the Stimson Center think tank, said negotiating a new IMF agreement is a top priority for the new government.
“Prolonged political uncertainty will complicate that process now that Pakistan cannot afford to delay,” she said.
Former Indian diplomats said the mixed poll results pose a challenge to India's relations with its nuclear-armed rival and that Delhi is likely to take a “wait-and-see” attitude.
Sharat Sabharwal, who served as India's high commissioner to Pakistan from 2009 to 2013, also said it would be difficult for Pakistan's new government to move forward with relations with India.
“We need a political agreement to move forward on this issue, and that agreement will not exist…If we take any action against India, our adversaries will immediately accuse us of selling out. ”
Mr. Khan, who is popular, has also publicly accused the United States of being part of a plot to overthrow the government. Washington denies his involvement in any such plot, and Mr. Khan was convicted of leaking diplomatic communications between Islamabad and Washington, which Mr. Khan denies.
“After two years of turmoil, the international community simply wants Pakistan to have a functioning government with some legitimacy,” said Hussain Haqqani, former ambassador to Washington and senior fellow at the Hudson Center.
“They want to be able to deal with Pakistan without fear that normal diplomatic exchanges turn into conspiracy theories.”